Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University thinks that a huge political realignment is happening in the West. There's a new type of discourse which is less about economics, as it largely was for almost a century, and more about identitarian politics, about the shifting sands of statecraft and the nature of the nation state and borders. It's a big, historic inflexion point which Tim believes will be the biggest geopolitical upheaval since the last 1940s. The boom in higher education in the UK turned into a bubble and bubbles are prone to burst. The sector is in crisis, with culling of courses and institutions while student loans are now a hot political football. Clearly it is a bad idea for national targets to be set for higher education, but Tim wonders why there is no competition for student loans. Why can't institutions compete with the government and develop their own products?
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
Published:
Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses Trump's threat to leave NATO, saying that the closer the mid-term elections are, the more desperate Trump becomes. It is hard to see what has been achieved by the US action against Iran, other than entrenching the regime's hardliners and closing a vital trade route. Trump's threat is a frightening prospect, as NATO is the bedrock of European security. With the UK local elections just a few weeks away, Keir Starmer has opted to focus on the cost of living. One of his aims is to seek closer economic ties with the EU. Mike hopes that he will take the chance to talk up collective security for which – in the fact of Trump's threats – Europe needs a long-term strategy.
Guests: Mike Indian
Published:
Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans says that to understand Donald Trump, you need to know that, in the late 80s and early 90s, he was a close friend of Richard Nixon, who told him that he used the persona of an irrational madman to unsettle others. Indeed, Nixon and his wife urged Trump to enter politics. In terms of policy, Trump is also a devotee of Reagan and William McKinley, an advocate of tariffs in America's interests. The Archbishop of Canterbury is one of the most important constitutional positions in Britain. In an increasingly secular age, the new Archbishop will have a challenging task ahead, but Tim feels that she is the right person for the job. The issue of Net Zero has come to the fore in the midst of an energy crisis like the 1970s. Tim ponders the politics of it, wondering if it could become as divisive as Brexit.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
Published:
Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian says that in the light of the Iran war, the interests of Western nations are diverging sharply, with increasingly erratic American foreign policy – "muscular isolationism" – straining UK-US relations. The US President doesn't seem to see a need to keep allies onside and looks increasingly out of touch. The huge increase in the price of oil and gas is having an effect worldwide, but particularly in the UK, where we rely on natural gas for heating but have little storage and rely on imports, posing problems for Ed Miliband. However, if Starmer's government could show strong leadership in an economic emergency, it could be the making of him. A sharp rise in inflation, though, could put the government under incredible pressure, as could more Mandelson files and low pay growth. Mike feels Angela Rayner will return to the Cabinet after the May elections but what role could she be offered and what would she be willing to accept?
Guests: Mike Indian
Published:
Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that English common law is the absolute jewel of the UK and that the undermining of trial by jury is utterly shocking; doubly so that it is being done by Labour, which has usually been at the vanguard of civil liberties. The UK public sector is withering and being hollowed out from the inside. He discusses whether the equality of women in society was not only a political story but also an economic one, concluding that – as with other stories of liberation – it is a bit of both. Reform is now Britain's best-funded political party, which is of particular significance in the run-up to the local elections. Tim notes that Reform is now stealing Tory policies such as setting up a sovereign wealth fund. Better late than never. If it encourages other parties to commit to this, then all to the good.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
Published:
Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian says that Kier Starmer's decision to stay out of the strikes on Iran is wise. There is no sense of an end-game plan. All this is a long way from Trump's first-term rhetoric of "no foreign wars". It is hard to see this as anything but naked aggression. We, however, have built our post-war security under the US nuclear umbrella and our failure to protect our bases merely highlights the cutbacks in our armed forces in the last 15 years or so. If we are smart, perhaps we will use the conflict as a spur to increase our defence budget. Has Starmer's refusal to help harmed the "Special Relationship"? That hasn't really existed since Bush and Blair. Iran will run out of ammunition before the Americans but what happens then? The muted reaction to the Spring Statement shows how quiet things have become on the Rachel Reeves' front. The forecasts for growth have been downgraded but the Chancellor is still on track to meet her tax and spending rules. A surge in inflation as a result of "events" could yet pose her problems.
Guests: Mike Indian
Published:
Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
James Cameron-Wilson reports that box office is down 32%, though Wuthering Heights is still #1. #6 is the unnerving but funny horror Cold Storage. Witty, in the mould of Tremors, this gruesome tale of a deadly fungus has all the makings of a cult classic, managing the tricky balance between gross-out horror and laugh-out-loud comedy. At #10 is Good Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die, a sci-fi twist on Groundhog Day with Sam Rockwell a traveller from the future trying to prevent the AI apocalypse. A satirical shaggy dog epic in the manner of Terry Gilliam, it is very funny and chilling at the same time. James admired the Netflix documentary The Perfect Neighbour. Largely taken from police bodycam footage, it is about a neighbourhood tragedy in Florida. Although it is widely tipped for an Oscar, he is not sure of its merits as a watchable movie.
Guests: James Cameron-Wilson
Published:
Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University wonders what the Gorton and Denton by-election could portend for British politics. Could it be another signpost to the end of traditional two-party politics? Is something going wrong for the established political class? Might it signal the end of Starmer's Premiership? Tim cites both a study into NHS maternity services and a statement from a former health minister that doubling the NHS budget over 20 years has made no difference to the nation's health as evidence of the truth of Gammon's Law about the growth of bureaucracy displacing useful work. Lastly, he and Simon discuss the loss of a mutual friend, Simon Richards, former chief executive of the Freedom Association. Dubbed "the nicest man in British politics", he wore his politics lightly but had an amazing talent for bringing people together. In an age where politicians are so earnest and serious, we need more people like Simon. He, and his infectious laugh, will be much missed.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
Published:
Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian marvels at the Prime Minister's extraordinary survival act over the past fortnight or so, despite the circling vultures. His new cabinet secretary, Antonia Romeo, has just been appointed to disprove the talk of an inner circle "boys' club", but it's a moment of maximum danger for the Labour government with public anger at central government and the elite at a peak. Starmer probably only has weeks left, particularly after the astonishing U-turn over cancelling local elections and the revelation that the legal advice on this only came to light just ahead of Reform's court case. However, the battle for Starmer's soul is not over. This week also saw the unveiling of Reform's "shadow cabinet", aiming to show that they can be seen as a credible political force with a broad team ready to govern. If they do as well as predicted in the local elections, this will make life for the party more complex and expose them to yet more scrutiny. It would be ironic after what has transpired if there is a low turnout.
Guests: Mike Indian
Published:
Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that the increasing unaffordability of daily living is something politicians won't admit to. It was masked for a time by the influx of cheap Chinese goods but no longer, pushed up by Net Zero, the minimum wage, tax rises and ever more burdensome regulations and government interventions. The costs of energy and housing are having the biggest effect, with property up by 250% since 2000. Only in the remaining free market areas is it not the case, thanks to the magic of capitalism. Less than two years after the election, Labour is now as divided and fractious as the Tories were and Tim cannot foresee the Labour Party patching things up. The electorate is increasingly reminded of the last Tory government. He also considers how Trump is rapidly reshaping our world, with his actions towards Venezuela, Cuba and Iran effectively taking some of Putin's chess pieces off the board.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
Published:
