Original Broadcast: Thought for the Week
Whatever you may think of trade tariffs, there is no doubting the massive trade imbalance that has developed between China and the United States over the past three decades. Deliberate currency manipulation has enabled China to become the world's factory through resisting any meaningful appreciation of the Renminbi against the U.S. dollar. Parts of Europe have also suffered much economic damage as a result of the failure to balance out regional economic differences. If strong, accommodating economic control cannot be delivered, freely-floating currencies are the answer — but not tariffs. Background music: 'Something Is Wrong' by Sir Cubworth
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Original Broadcast: Thought for the Week
Both the Office for Budget Responsibility and Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, have warned of serious consequences for public finances if significant action isn't taken. The assumption is that this must be achieved by lifting growth in productivity. But what if the main impediment to traditional economic growth, as evidenced by GDP, is endemic demonetization brought about by advancing technology and automation? Is it time to look for a radically new approach which will allow everyone to participate in that wealth creation? Background music: 'The New Order' by Aaron Kenny
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The past year has seen a litany of climate change disasters of which the wildfires in Los Angeles are the latest. Yet Americans still supported Trump's call to 'drill, baby, drill' in the presidential election. This is just the latest disaster that financial markets have to contend with. How much pressure can the insurance and investment markets take? The one thing that we know for sure is that, while the American people may have locked in their choice for the next four years, there's no such insurance for the bond market — it can strike at any time. Background music: 'Trap Unboxing' by Jimmy Fontanez_Doug Maxwell
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Last week we focused on UK government debt: but it pales into insignificance when compared to U.S. national debt. Donald Trump has radical plans to apply tax cuts and huge import tariffs, but could this trigger a global financial crisis with no-one prepared to buy debt in a zombie economy? U.S. national debt has doubled to over $35 trillion during the ten years that Share Radio has been on air: both Democrats and Republicans have driven it remorselessly. A new approach to economics is needed which doesn't rely on either bigger government or lower taxes. Background music: 'Dark Alley Deals' by Aaron Kenny
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Original Broadcast: Thought for the Week
The yellow-shaded column is the OBR's forecast for borrowing in 2028-29 as at March this year; the blue-shaded is their latest forecast. Is this really 'Invest, Invest, Invest' or 'Borrow, Borrow, Borrow'? The problem is that it all lands on the shoulders of today's young people, who will struggle more to find jobs after the employer NI changes and whose prospects of home ownership and family formation are already weighed down by student debt. Background music: 'Missing Persons' by Jeremy Blake
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Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, has called for an overhaul of copyright legislation to recognise the broad span of human creativity. It is indeed time to re-align the balance between sharing knowledge and ring-fencing ownership, but the quid pro quo is to provide mass participation in the wealth creation made possible by Generative Artificial Intelligence. John Maynard Keynes' experience of the two world wars of the 20th century showed how complacent attitudes amongst the wealthy led to these tragedies, and Gillian Tett has drawn a parallel with today's cocktail of globalisation, capitalism and rapid technological development. The Achilles' heel is still acute wealth polarisation, but mass participation could provide a way forward. Background music: 'Intellect' by Yung Logos
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UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents her first Budget on Wednesday 30th October after a major spending review. Her election commitments on tax rates and the priority she has given to restoring growth will limit the scope for raising further revenues, but there's plenty of room for re-balancing health spending by introducing mandatory health insurance for wealthy old folk. The balance between what comes in and what goes out is a struggle for almost all western democracies: in the United States, debt interest accounts for 76% of income tax receipts. In the UK it's 36%: still high, and that's notwithstanding the impact of frozen tax thresholds causing higher receipts, which would act to reduce that percentage. Background music: 'People Watching' by Sir Cubworth
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UK Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson describes our current system for financing higher education as 'the worst of all worlds', and she's right. The combination of loan funding and universality has generated chronic problems for both students and universities. We need to apply inter-generational logic to address both this problem and the challenges faced by other disadvantaged young people from low-income backgrounds. The Times placed this story on its front page last Saturday, and re-introduction of maintenance grants for these young people will be part of the solution: this issue will clearly get some focus in the UK Budget on 30th October. Hopefully it will also include those other areas where focused help is needed for disadvantaged young people, including starter capital accounts and incentivised learning, with funding to be drawn from IHT receipts. Background music: 'Generations Away' by Unicorn Heads
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It's been a long wait for summer this year, and we need to search for glimmers of hope as we approach the new political/economic/academic year. One such is the significant rise in Maths 'A' level entries, which will help young people find good careers. Another is the 0.25% reduction in interest rates: a cautious and close-run decision in times of considerable turbulence. Real interest rates are still 3%, so there's a long way to go. If the current rash of street riots allow it, we need to use the few weeks of summer calm to reflect on the big issues holding us back, including how to achieve a world without poverty. Background music: 'Solar Power' by Ashley Shadow
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Original Broadcast: Thought for the Week
The scale of the nominal national debt is staggering, but when you add in unfunded pension schemes (state and public sector) and HM Treasury indemnities to the Bank of England it places a heavy load indeed on the new Chancellor. Her early career at the Bank of England and HBOS will have prepared Rachel Reeves well to tackle this challenge in her new role as Chancellor of the Exchequer; and she will be well aware of the heavy burden being placed on younger generations. Background music: 'Burden Laid Down' by The Westerlies
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