Original Broadcast: Thought for the Week
Labour MPs' celebration of the Chancellor's abolition of the 2-child welfare benefit cap in last week's Budget statement completely eclipsed the outstanding need for a comprehensive strategy to address the economic and familial stresses impacting children, adolescents and young adults: so much worse than a few decades ago. We focus on three specifics in this commentary: the continuing denial of Government to deliver Child Trust Fund money to low-income young adults unaware of their money; the punishing burden of the student loan system, and the instability and insecurity caused by a society which has lost its moral compass. Background music: 'Generations Away' by Unicorn Heads
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Original Broadcast: Thought for the Week
Universal publicly-funded welfare, including health care and education, has proved a very expensive Marxist experiment in western democracies. Far from resolving the challenge of eliminating poverty and disadvantage, it has loaded a huge debt burden on public finances which Rachel Reeves needs to address in the forthcoming UK Budget. But there is no point in loading still more income and capital taxes on the wealthy: they'll just leave the country in ever greater numbers, and economic growth — and tax revenue — will fall as a result. A much more practical solution is that people who can afford to pay for these services should do so, so that Government can focus financial support where it's most needed. Background music: 'The New Order' by Aaron Kenny
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Original Broadcast: Thought for the Week
Politicians of all parties seem to think that we can both cut immigration and achieve significantly higher economic growth, notwithstanding the fact that there would be no population growth from which it would come: artificial growth from short-term policies such as public sector 'investment' stimulation is not the answer. After 75 years during which the world's human population has quadrupled, an increasing number of countries are facing this challenge. We now need more focus on GDP per capita, less public spending and debt, and more focus on inter-generational rebalancing. Background music: 'Something Is Wrong' by Sir Cubworth
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Original Broadcast: Thought for the Week
Government inaction is rooted in Civil Service reticence. It's not a recent phenomenon; it inspired 'Yes Minister' forty years ago, much to Margaret Thacher's amusement. But when it frustrates a Labour Government's abiity to deliver a key policy of its predecessor such as Child Trust Funds, that's a different matter. At the start of Boris Johnson's premiership, Dominic Cummings sought to control HM Treasury reticence by moving his team into HMT. Sir Keir Starmer appears to be doing a reverse takeover by drawing Darren Jones into No. 10 as his 'Chief Economic Secretary'. Will it work? Background music: 'People Watching' by Sir Cubworth. Image source: BBC
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Original Broadcast: Thought for the Week
If buyers of government bonds fear potential default, they require significantly higher yields to offset that risk. For bonds already issued, that means much lower prices — and big losses for holders, especially if the bonds are long-dated. For new bonds being issued, governments have to pay a much higher interest rate, significantly increasing their current deficit and requiring still more taxation. Governments can ask the International Monetary Fund to bail them out; if the IMF can help, it imposes stringent conditions on their economic and fiscal policies. The world has not been faced with multiple and concurrent defaults to date, and no-one knows how such a situation can be resolved.The United States, United Kingdom and France are approaching this black hole now, and need to make some urgent changes in policies to avoid it. Background music: 'Dark Alley Deals' by Aaron Kenny
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Original Broadcast: Thought for the Week
Italy is not alone in experiencing a massive fall in its birth rate over recent years: so has the United Kingdom. Lowering the voting age to 16 is all very well, but it needs to be accompanied by a raft of co-ordinated policies to help young adults towards family formation and independent living. Rural villages, where house prices are so often well out of reach for young people, provide a clear litmus test of whether these policies are working. Do you remember mortgage interest rate tax relief, or when university life didn't end in heavyweight student debt? We need a coordinated policy framework to improve conditions for young adults. Background music: 'Folk Tap Harp' by Unicorn Heads
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Original Broadcast: Thought for the Week
The debate over Cash ISA limits and the need to re-invigorate public interest in UK stock market investing has re-awoken people's ongoing approach to risk and reward, as if it's an 'either/or' question for your finances. However the Child Trust Fund scheme has shown the real benefit of long-term stock market investment — the challenge for this huge initiative taken by the previous Labour Government is to ensure that it gets delivered in cash at the right time for low-income young adults. Background music: 'Everything Has a Beginning' by Joel Cummins
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Original Broadcast: Thought for the Week
A comment article in The Times last Friday was headed, 'Starmer and Reeves must change to survive' — but which way? The backbench Labour MP uprising called for even more State spending, but the bond market and the July 22nd ‘Cost of Government Day’ say no — the public sector is already much too big. Of more concern is their preference to go for the 'stick' of welfare reduction rather than the 'carrot' of empowerment through individual ownership and freedom for all, drawing a sharp contrast between this Labour Government and that of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown two decades ago. Background music: 'Hopeful Freedom' by Asher Fulero Image: happier days, from Wikimedia
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Original Broadcast: Thought for the Week
The Chancellor was like a person sitting on the cliff-edge of colossal public debt last week, convinced that her massive 'investment' commitments can overlook the void below. It appears that economic stimulation is the only game in town for the British economy, and even that seems to avoid joined-up thinking in some key areas. Background music: 'Ether Oar' by The Whole Other
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On 11th June UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents her Spending Review against the backdrop of a gargantuan public debt liability which is costing the UK taxpayer £111 billion a year in interest. Further tax rises have been ruled out, so she needs to identify achievable, structural reductions in spending. Elon Musk thought he'd done just that as head of the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), but only a small fraction of his planned reductions were achieved. In the UK at least we can break away from welfare universality — but will she do it? She's tried taxation and now she has to tackle spending, but the real elephant in the room is debt: all £2.7 trillion of it. Background music: 'Dark Alley Deals' by Aaron Kenny
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