Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that with Rachel Reeves facing a £50 billion black hole, he can't understand why the government is enacting or considering policies that will worsen our economic position. We are now surely in a doom loop and both Labour and Tories are making huge mistakes in carrying on with an unsustainable big state. He considers the strategic errors of the EU, which subcontracted its energy supply to Russia, its supply chains to China and its defence to China. Europe's policies are not rooted in sound economics or governance and its recent trade deal massively benefits the USA. Others may complain about Trump's tariffs but the EU has over 4,000 in force. He discusses a forthcoming book from demographer Paul Morland which claims that the human race is in danger of dying out. Despite some vigorously reproducing countries, too many are ageing and shrinking, putting pressure on welfare states and losing innovation and inventiveness. Without a massive change in course, many parts of the world are in terminal decline.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses the move by Macron, Starmer and Carney towards recognising a Palestinian state. While largely a symbolic gesture which presents a number of complicating factors, the Netanyahu goverment is clearly losing support in the West. Discussing the doctor's strike, with a call for a 29% rise after getting 22% last year and Wes Streeting's tough language, Mike feels they may be overplaying their hand. He finds Donald Trump holding court during his UK visit fascinating but thinks Starmer is better than most leaders at handling Trump. As the ONS confirm the second highest population increase since WW2, Mike points out that without migration the population of many Western countries would fall. He finds himself deeply suspicious of the rhetoric of many politicians on the right on this topic.
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that we are living in changeable times and that the major political parties we have known all our lives may not hold sway for much longer. Jeremy Corbyn has finally agreed to join a new hard-left party with Zara Sultana, although the name won't be announced until its first conference. Pollsters suggest 10% of voters could support it, mirroring what is happening on the right with the Conservatives and Reform. Kemi Badenoch's reshuffle is instantly forgettable and confirms something is going seriously wrong with the Tories. Meanwhile Reform remains consistently ahead of Labour and is now trying to add form and structure, building a board and ensuring it is ready for the next election, which Tim feels could be in 2028.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike indian discusses the removal of the whip of the four MPs who led the welfare rebellion. Despite Labour's massive majority, it is proving hard to maintain party discipline. Rachel Reeves has emerged as Starmer's co-Prime Minister with market reaction to her tears in the Commons strengthening her position, as there seems no possible alternative Chancellor. The Afghan data breach, and the superinjunction covering it up, is a spectacular blunder by the British state. It heightens the impression of incompetence at the top and the belief that civil servants are never held to account. Lastly, Mike turns to the lowering of the voting age to 16, wondering if Reform might not be the party that benefits most from it.
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that it is now obvious that the welfare state begun by Lloyd George and Churchill in 1909 is on an unsustainable path and that the political cowardice of MPs has to end. The OBR has warned how vulnerable the UK's position is, yet not even Labour can get a grip on it. Tim discusses his own recently published "manifesto" as to how a failing state where nothing works can be rescued by private enterprise, pointing out the growing trend for people turning to private providers. And he highlights the massive sea change in the public's attitude towards private healthcare.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Simon Rose is joined by political commentator and author of The Groucho Tendency blog, Mike Indian, to discuss how UK politics has got to where it is. In this episode recorded in October 2019, Simon and Mike discuss the history of the Labour Party. As the party strains to maintain its unity notwithstanding its huge majority from the 2024 election, it's interesting to reflect on its journey over past decades.
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that the wheels are coming off the welfare project that began in the early 20th century. The state can no longer do it all and either massive changes are made proactively or it will happen reactively through a money market crisis. Sadly, few politicians show the necessary pragmatism and we may already be seeing the early signs of a legitimation crisis. He also looks at Donald Trump. The domestic picture is mixed but, internationally, he cannot remember a US President moving so many dials so rapidly and in such significant ways.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses the G7 meeting with Donald Trump to the fore. He doesn't believe the vaunted UK trade deal with the US is the full thing but, more important, were the discussions on Ukraine and the Middle East. Mike also ponders whether the G7 is becoming less relevant as a body. He turns to the grooming gang inquiry, the latest in a long-running, disappointing saga. The terms of the inquiry and the timescale will be vital. As with the decriminalisation of abortion, Mike laments the toxicity of these and many other current issues. Political discourse is getting angrier and consensus ever harder to find: this is not helpful for democracy.
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University believes that the UK is now in a doom loop. With no coherent strategy, Rachel Reeves is digging us ever deeper into a hole, borrowing massively with no attempt to improve productivity or encourage growth. No wonder capital and talent is fleeing. For anyone wondering how we might do things differently in a politically viable way, reducing the state and improving state services, Tim recommends Lord Moynihan's very readable work, Return to Growth. And he finds fascinating the 180-degree ideological shift by many in Labour when it comes to our civil nuclear programme.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian says that the Winter Fuel U-turn has undermined the position of the Prime Minister and Chancellor, with Labour MPs getting increasingly rebellious. But there is no obvious successor to Keir Starmer and Mike predicts that the PM will not only last till the end of this Parliament but stand again. In some ways, he feels, the forthcoming Spending Review is the biggest decision Labour will take in this Parliament. He approves of the money earmarked for improving transport in the north and the equipment detailed in the Defence Review. But it's clear personnel levels in the armed forces need to be raised. All this at a time when jittery markets no longer want to sustain growing government debt while growth is low.
Guests: Mike Indian
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