Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell remarks on the Bank of England slowing down its gilt sales. The 10-year gilt, currently 4.7%, is seen as the risk-free rate against which other bonds are rated, the risks with them being inflation, interest rates, credit risk and liquidity. With equities, there's a mysterious turning point where institutions feel it's safer to be in gilts. After its rise, the UK market isn't as attractive as it was. The cash yield on the FTSE is a little north of 6%. 19 of its companies offer more than the risk-free rate. The old rule of thumb was that if it's double, as one company is, it's "too good to be true". Where do we go from here, though, with a moribund economy and the UK still adding to its debts?
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Neil Shah of Edison Group admires Next for its forward planning and economic predictions. Its latest report anticipates anaemic growth, depressed by poor job opportunities, excess government spending and regulation and a rising tax burden. Coming on top of news that fund managers are dumping UK equities at the fastest rate in 20 years, it feels like a turning of the tide. On a more optimistic note, he says that housebuilder Springfield Properties is pivoting its portfolio to build housing to take advantage of green-related construction in the north of Scotland and feels that there's a long way to go.
Guests: Neil Shah
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell returns to the topic of mining, particularly copper, in the wake of the link-up of Anglo American and Teck Resources. Copper is a great guide to the economic weather, with many industrial uses and being essential to electrification. Although nobody seems to be discussing it, Teck was trading at a big discount and has many possible synergies with Anglo. Russ also discusses some of the many indicators he finds useful as a guide to what markets are thinking.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Finlay Mathers of Edison highlights Futronic, an AIM-listed UK technology company specialising in extremely-high-frequency radio solutions for space, defence and communications. They've recently seen a sharp increase in growth and new contracts with Space X now account for almost half their revenue. Although it has a high rating, this reflects the step change in Futronic's growth rate. He also discussed BP, which has shifted back to its roots, focussing on shareholder returns and reducing costs.
Guests: Finlay Mathers
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell suggests that miners and commodities are looking interesting. Greek energy and commodity giant Metlen is about to join the FTSE 100 although only 20% of it is metals-related (the rest is in energy). But gold and silver have been on a tear, copper is up, as is iron ore,and yet commodities are still at a multi-year cyclical low. Investors need to be careful about investing in indvidual companies, given the problems just revealed at Hochshild. But exposure to a basket of mining and commodity companies could be sensible.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Chloe Wong Yun Shing of Edison Group takes Simon Rose through their quarterly Consumer Watch report. The second quarter was hit by shocks like US tariffs while the labour market in the UK softened. Consumer confidence was weak here, in Europe and in North America, though 12 of the UK's 16 subsectors outperformed the market. Among undervalued companies with earnings momentum identified by Edison are Card Factory, Curry's and Trainline. The full report is on the Edison Group website.
Guests: Chloe Wong Yun Shing
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell is intrigued by Rolls-Royce's CEO saying his company is capable of being the largest in the FTSE. It's currently sixth. He also said he saw no need to moving the listing to the US as others have done, despite half its revenue coming from Stateside. Russ explains why US stocks are on almost double the UK rating and explains why switching the listing is not a free ticket to a higher multiple. But in any case, the era of big cap growth won't last for ever and investors may find better value elsewhere.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell explains the impressive performance of the UK stock market, with the FTSE passing 9,000 for the first time. UK equities have outperformed those in the US this year despite the dollar having fallen 10%. As Russ has said regularly in this spot, unloved can mean undervalued and that appears to be the case. With regular M&A activity and buybacks, it's estimated the All-Share is on an effective 6.6% yield so a good deal of cash is coming back to investors. The economic picture in the UK may be dire, but don't forget that two-thirds of the FTSE's earnings come from overseas.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Chloe Wong Yun Shing of Edison Group returns to the topic of Athens-listed energy & metals company Metlen. Expanding into the defence equipment supply chain, its stragegy remains capex-led and organically financed. Its arrival on the London market in August will be the biggest listing of the year and the £5bn company will qualify for entry to the FTSE, making it a unique and attractive new stock. Finlay Mathers of Edison highlights a relatively small labour supply company listed on AIM. Hercules is worth £34m and recently made a big acquisition. Its revenues are rising, its margins stable and the market in areas like power transmission is growing. Although little known, the company is trying to increase the level of retail interest.
Guests: Chloe Wong Yun Shing,Finlay Mathers
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Fergus Caheny of Evelyn Partners says investors cannot ignore what is currently happening in the US, where Trump is unhappy with Jay Powell, the Chair of the Fed. It's a politically independent job with nine months to run and Trump cannot sack him. But there's talk of a shadow Fed chair which could challenge the incumbent. With growing unease at the growth of the US deficit, the bond markets are flashing amber at a time when more investors are turning to them as they offer better rates than for years. Bonds will be one of the most important stories over the next four years of Trump's presidency.
Guests: Fergus Caheny
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