Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
For Simon Rose's last discussion with Russ Mould of A J Bell, Russ looks at the tentative bid for FTSE 100 stock Segro, once a warehouse REIT, now moving into data centres. It's the 16th bid for a UK property company in the last four years and yet UK investors don't seem interested in UK commercial property. The 10-year gilt yields 4.7% against a sector yield of 6.3%. Does that premium compensate investors for the risks? Russ wonders why, if REITs believe the sector discount to assets of 25%, they don't buy back their own shares. It would be more positive for the sector than bids, even if those bids show that there are people overseas who think that there is value there.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Yana Mihaylova of Edison Group focusses on XP Factory, a £32m AIM stock which is the market leader in escape rooms with Escape Hunt and also operates Boom Battle Bar. They are making a strategic shift from the latter to the former. Escape rooms are significantly cheaper to set up and run than the bars and are more profitable, so the shift makes sense, particularly given rising employment costs. The company aims to expand from 24 to 100 venues and make them larger and is helped by smaller escape room operations closing. Neil Shah of Edison returns to PZ Cussons, which manages a brand portfolio including Carex and Imperial Leather. Its trading update showed the new management team's turnround is ahead of expectations. The company aims to spend twice as much on R&D in 2027 as in 2025 and, with a yield of 4% and a forward P/E of 12, Edison feels it has a long way to run.
Guests: Yana Mihaylova,Neil Shah
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses the quarterly reshuffle of the FTSE100 constituents. Coming in at the end of June are Computacenter, Investec and Aberdeen. Investec is the second bank to enter this year while Computacenter is felt to be an AI play. Out go Berkeley Group, Rightmove and Mondi, indicating sentiment turning against real estate and property. Investors often find companies moving up to be a positive indicator but we should not forget the disaster that was ASOS entering the FTSE250. In the end, investors should stick to fundamentals and valuations. Sector flows can be a useful soft indicator for spotting bubbles. Russ gives examples from the tech bubble and that of oil and resources. You just never know what is going to tip a sector over the edge or when.
Guests: russ mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Neil Shah of Edison Group returns to the topic of Games Workshop. The recent trading update of this small cap that has grown into a FTSE 100 share significantly beat expectations. It is growing so strongly that it has already beaten Edison's analysts' 2027 numbers. The company benefits from loyal consumer demand, is still expanding geographically and will benefit from the forthcoming linked Amazon drama. It is a business which is growing in a sensible way while paying decent dividends. Neil points out that it was only a fortnight earlier that he talked of the attractions of Easyjet, now the subject of a bid from US private equity. It may be opportunistic but there is strong underlying demand and valuation there. Stelios still owns 15% of the company and, given that the shares were £18, he may not be willing to sell. But it shows that there are some very attractive UK businesses out there.
Guests: Neil Shah
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
For once, Russ Mould of A J Bell talks politics. With the prospect in the offing of the 8th mid-term Prime Minister since 1962, how much attention do markets pay to such things? Rather less than you might think, concludes Russ after crunching the numbers. Although the results vary, by and large the equity market doesn't seem to be particularly threatened, while gilt market yields on every occasion have gone down, though with a wide range of outcomes. Perhaps this is not surprising. Whatever their policies, the occupant of Number 10 is more likely to shape the P in P/E ratios than the E.
Guests: russ mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Finlay Mathers of Edison Group explains why MP Evans and AEP fell so heavily this week. Both produce crude palm oil, which estimates say are in roughly ⅓ of the things on supermarket shelves, even shampoo. The Indonesian President is to centralise product exports through a state-run company which investors fear will produce bottlenecks and distort prices. Both companies, however, say they sell to local refineries and do not export directly. After Easyjet reported, Neil Shah says investors might consider thinking about how the company will be perceived after the Iran crisis. Their planes alone are worth about £8 a share and, in normal times, they trade cheaply with an attractive yield. If you believe the status quo will return, they could be interesting from a valuation perspective.
Guests: Finlay Mathers,Neil Shah
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell says that the UK 10-year gilt, yielding over 5%, is the highest since 2008. Although that was normal in the Blair years, things are different after 15 years of financial repression with inflation consistently above target and debt levels everywhere far higher. If Starmer and Reeves are replaced, we'd have the 7th PM and 9th Chancellor in 10 years. In the G20 only emerging markets have to pay more to borrow than the UK, while our interest bill is more than we spend on defence. Investors can get a theoretically risk-free and tax-free 5% nominal yield with gilts. It's a potential alternative to equities but inflation is the enemy: while the UK market yields 3.6%, with buybacks, bids and so on factored in, it's more like 6.3%.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Liam O'Byrne of Edison highlights Seraphim Space Investment Trust, which has a diversified portfolio of primarily private space technology companies, businesses which would otherwise be very hard for investors to reach. The shares have risen over 300% in a year, an amazing re-rating with its one-time 70% discount turning into a 56% premium. Despite the rise, there are several positive catalysts ahead. Molten Ventures, in the FTSE250, is a venture capital firm focussing on private high-growth tech companies. Its recent trading update makes for encouraging reading. It trades at a discount of 25% but the management is working to close that.
Guests: Liam O'Byrne
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell says that oil briefly touched $125 a barrel because the "blockade of the blockage" is cutting off 1/5 of the global supply. However, he points out that this is a paper future oil price. The current price is higher, as one might expect with tight supply. There are, of course, other types of oil which are currently much cheaper because they go nowhere near Iran. The equity market is pricing in a speedy solution but it is just as easy to argue that the blockade will continue and that stagflation will be the result. It isn't only oil that is the problem, of course. Urea and helium are both essential commodities also facing supply problems. Even if the markets are correct and things de-escalate, in the face of so much that has been destroyed or damaged, it is unlikely to be a smooth ride ahead.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Political commentator Mike Indian says that the Iran war will have a profound and lasting effect upon the UK government. In the short term, it has strengthened the Prime Minister's position, with his "Steady Eddie" persona. But the cost of living will come to the fore, with energy, food, CO2 and fertiliser costs all rising and the possibility of food shortages. The PM has come under attack for delays in defence spending. It is one thing to announce an increase in investment but it is important how the money will be spent. We don't appear to have learnt from the Ukraine invasion about the importance of shortening supply chains. Mike discusses the extraordinary intervention by J D Vance in the Hungarian election. Many European leaders will breathe a sigh of relief at Orban's outing but it is not clear what Magyar is for and how he will use his power.
Guests: Mike Indian
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