Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
With the Bank of England raising interest rates to 5% and inflation not just remaining stubbornly high but perhaps becoming ingrained, Danni Hewson talks to Simon Rose about what the future holds. Housebuilders, retailers and the hospitality sector are saying consumers are resilient but all indicators point to a recession. Investors should be mindful of the changing economy and may need to rebalance their portfolios. With an election pending, how will the Government react to what is happening?
Guests: Danni Hewson
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Neil Shah of Edison Group explains to Simon Rose that, as Albert Einstein remarked, compound interest is the eighth Wonder of the World. He discusses two companies that exhibit the same characterics. Games Workshop, with its niche Warhammer figurines has international scalability and over the long term produces a sustained return on equity while DiscoverIE has transformed itself and is another self-sustaining business with free cash flow generation. Compared to their peers, both look to be at a discount and they could be good "buy and forget" investments.
Guests: Neil Shah
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell, ever the contrarian, finds oil of interest because it is currently viewed so negatively. But he points out that, while supply is not growing, the world is still addicted to the stuff and that if demand keeps growing, it must have an effect on the price. For interested investors, he suggests sticking to the majors, a specialist fund or passive instrument, or a combination without going overboard. He also gives us advice from Benjamin Graham: The best investment returns are reaped by realists who buy from pessimists and sell to optimists.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Neil Shah of Edison Group talks to Simon Rose about the general state of the markets, where the US and UK are lagging Europe and parts of Asia. The UK is held back by an absence of decent growth while investors are nervous of a possible American recession, deflation and banking problems. In the UK, though, there are always going to be interesting companies able to react to difficult conditions and Neil highlights what is happening at Topps Tiles and Gregg's.
Guests: Neil Shah
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the rise of the Japanese stock market, which has hit a 33-year-high. He points out that it is still a quarter below its all-time high, hit on the last day of 1989. After debt-fuelled craziness saw the land of the Imperial Palace worth more than all of California before a collapse, and with decades of QE since, foreign investors have long neglected the market. Japanese companies have become more shareholder-friendly than they used to be. Russ explains that it could be wisest for UK investors, if considering Japan, to use active or passive collective investments, rather than relying on individual shares.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
After the Bank of England raise interest rates to their highest since 2008 Russ Mould of A J Bell points out that the last time inflation was in double digits, so were interest rates. At present, real interest rates are heavily negative. He also discusses share buybacks, illegal in the US until 1982. They're now being used heavily by FTSE100 companies and Russ discusses their pros and cons and whether they gerrymander figures. He also explains why Next is a company that does it right.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor explains why the US Fed raised rates for the 10th time in 14 months to a 16-year-high, despite the turmoil in the American banking sector. It makes it all the more likely that the MPC will follow suit. Despite the American move, sterling is at an 11-month high against the dollar. She also looks at results from BP and Shell and discusses the major slide in oil prices.
Guests: Victoria Scholar
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the importance of the American tech stocks, once the FANGs and now MAANAM. All suffered steep price falls last year but, of the $2.4tn rebound in the S&P 500, $1.6tn has come from these six. Russ points out that the better their share prices do, the less downside protection there is. Inflation and interest rates are also a consideration to their valuation. But with no correspondingly important UK tech stocks, they're vitally important to British investors through tracker or other investment vehicles, even if they might not realise it. If their momentum is to continue, their results must deliver.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor summarises the latest UK inflation and employment statistics. In the light of general inflation remaining above 10% and with the likes of food and drink considerably higher than that, what do economists think will happen with interest rates? Is a hike more likely now? Will the economy fall into a recession this year? And will the UK stock market's tear come to an end?
Guests: Victoria Scholar
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at gold, which recently went above $2,000 an ounce again. He asks how the metal, which produces no income, can be valued. Believing it is NOT an inflation hedge, he does think it can be a hedge against loss of faith in central bankers. Despite a round of mergers and acquisitions in the industry, while gold has risen 30% since 2020, gold shares, out of fashion, are only up 12%. While smaller and riskier than the giants, he wonders if some UK gold producers could be considered cheap.
Guests: Russ Mould
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