Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the rise of the Japanese stock market, which has hit a 33-year-high. He points out that it is still a quarter below its all-time high, hit on the last day of 1989. After debt-fuelled craziness saw the land of the Imperial Palace worth more than all of California before a collapse, and with decades of QE since, foreign investors have long neglected the market. Japanese companies have become more shareholder-friendly than they used to be. Russ explains that it could be wisest for UK investors, if considering Japan, to use active or passive collective investments, rather than relying on individual shares.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
After the Bank of England raise interest rates to their highest since 2008 Russ Mould of A J Bell points out that the last time inflation was in double digits, so were interest rates. At present, real interest rates are heavily negative. He also discusses share buybacks, illegal in the US until 1982. They're now being used heavily by FTSE100 companies and Russ discusses their pros and cons and whether they gerrymander figures. He also explains why Next is a company that does it right.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor explains why the US Fed raised rates for the 10th time in 14 months to a 16-year-high, despite the turmoil in the American banking sector. It makes it all the more likely that the MPC will follow suit. Despite the American move, sterling is at an 11-month high against the dollar. She also looks at results from BP and Shell and discusses the major slide in oil prices.
Guests: Victoria Scholar
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the importance of the American tech stocks, once the FANGs and now MAANAM. All suffered steep price falls last year but, of the $2.4tn rebound in the S&P 500, $1.6tn has come from these six. Russ points out that the better their share prices do, the less downside protection there is. Inflation and interest rates are also a consideration to their valuation. But with no correspondingly important UK tech stocks, they're vitally important to British investors through tracker or other investment vehicles, even if they might not realise it. If their momentum is to continue, their results must deliver.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor summarises the latest UK inflation and employment statistics. In the light of general inflation remaining above 10% and with the likes of food and drink considerably higher than that, what do economists think will happen with interest rates? Is a hike more likely now? Will the economy fall into a recession this year? And will the UK stock market's tear come to an end?
Guests: Victoria Scholar
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at gold, which recently went above $2,000 an ounce again. He asks how the metal, which produces no income, can be valued. Believing it is NOT an inflation hedge, he does think it can be a hedge against loss of faith in central bankers. Despite a round of mergers and acquisitions in the industry, while gold has risen 30% since 2020, gold shares, out of fashion, are only up 12%. While smaller and riskier than the giants, he wonders if some UK gold producers could be considered cheap.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell finds it curious that central bankers are not looking in the mirror, but blaming social media and older people for recent problems, given that an excess of cheap money is at the root of so much that has gone wong. He believes there will still be reckonings to come in some areas and that the chances of a recession in the US have increased. UK investors, though, should concentrate on value and ignore short-term static. Don't be influenced by the mistakes of others.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor discusses the MPC's decision to raise interest rates 25 basis points to 4.25%, although there were 2 votes against the move. With inflation ticking up again, the Bank is clearly still concerned about how far CPI is above its 2% target, maintaining that the UK banking system is robust, despite problems in the US and Switzerland. While savers may cheer rising rates, Victoria points out that inflation is still well above savings rates, so there's a negative real return.
Guests: Victoria Scholar
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A JBell thinks Jeremy Hunt delivering the Budget did his best with a weak hand. Essentially, there is no money when the national interest bill is £100bn. Market nervousness about contagion from SVB and Credit Suisse Russ puts down to money being cheap for far too long. It has meant that too many people have done risky, silly things. Nervous investors should remember the basics, sticking to disciplined companies with sound management. He also wonders if 5% is the new 17%.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor looks at some of the recent indicators giving a guide to the state of the UK economy, including the Halifax house price index and the RICS's house price balance. She also looks at the recent retail sales numbers and KPMG's jobs market report. But the big driver of the market this week has been the hawkish testimony to Congress of Fed Chairman Jay Powell.
Guests: Victoria Scholar
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