Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
For once, Russ Mould of A J Bell talks politics. With the prospect in the offing of the 8th mid-term Prime Minister since 1962, how much attention do markets pay to such things? Rather less than you might think, concludes Russ after crunching the numbers. Although the results vary, by and large the equity market doesn't seem to be particularly threatened, while gilt market yields on every occasion have gone down, though with a wide range of outcomes. Perhaps this is not surprising. Whatever their policies, the occupant of Number 10 is more likely to shape the P in P/E ratios than the E.
Guests: russ mould
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses the essay from the Ghost of Labour Past, Tony Blair, saying that Labour has lost its way. While he is right about some things, the essay has gone down like a lead balloon with many in the party, with Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting laying into him. Ahead of the Makerfield by-election, Labour is in a holding pattern. Whoever does succeed Keir Starmer will face a challenging landscape, to say the very least. Peter Murrell, who was at the heard of Scotland's governing party for 15 years or so, has admitted to embezzling £400,000. The estranged husband of Nicola Sturgeon, Murrell's case raises questions about her judgement and perhaps explains why she resigned so suddenly. Alan Milburn's "lost generation" report shows that today's young people face a perfect storm. Being detached from the labour market could harm them for the rest of their lives. But the report is not likely to find much sympathy within the Starmer government. Nor is there much in it to give young people hope.
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: Gadgets and Gizmos
Steve Caplin offers some solutions for keeping cool, including Sony's wearable air conditioner, a neck fan and an umbrella with a built-in fan and water misting facility. There's a humanoid robot at a supposedly affordable price. In Shanghai there's now a robot training school. LaGuardia has a life-size AI hologram offering help for travellers. The first Ferrari electric car has been universally condemned, except by the Pope, who launched it. There's a crowd-funded AR HUD system for bikes, though it's not without its drawbacks. A Chelsea Flower Show designer has made mushrooms sing. A statue forger was trapped through carelessness with a font. And there's advice on the best way to protect yourself from a bomb blast.
Guests: Steve Caplin
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Original Broadcast: The Business Of Film
After watching #1 Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu, James Cameron-Wilson says he's exhausted by all these fantasy franchises. The effects are impressive but the plot seems redundant and he was extremely bored. Not so with #8 Finding Emily, the best romcom he has seen in quite some time. Produced by the team behind Love Actually and Bridget Jones, it's about a student trying to find a girl he clicked with, only for the search to go badly awry. Humming with great Curtis-esque lines, it has an engaging freshness and feels very real. After a brief mention of Hen, in which a hen observes Greek life, James discusses The Wizard of the Kremlin, starring Paul Dano and Alicia Vikander, about a filmmaker who becomes an adviser to Putin. On various platforms, it has an air of the Europudding.
Guests: James Cameron-Wilson
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Original Broadcast: The Business Of Film
James Cameron-Wilson urges us to see #7 The Christophers, Steven Soderbergh's virtual two-hander with Ian McKellan and Michaela Coel. About the children of a famous painter trying to get a forger to finish some of their father's canvasses, it benefits from superb acting and a magnificently witty script. Although a theatrical experience, it is a thing of beguiling beauty and is very funny. At #64 is Life Hack, another movie in which computer screens are depicted on the big screen. But this tale of an attempted heist by hackers set in the world of bitcoin carves out its own genre and deserves to be caught in cinemas. James continues his exploration of East German DEFA films with the 1966 banned movie Trace of Stones. Depicting life in the GDR in the 1960s, it seems uncontroversial now, though hardly flattering, and its home video premiere is accompanied by three documentaries.
Guests: James Cameron-Wilson
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that Labour, in office for less than two years, is at war with itself, with the party deeply divided into several factions. Labour is entering very choppy waters and may not be able to retain a level of trust with each other to keep the party together. It wouldn't be surprising if the public compared them with the Tories and think "same difference". Where are the big political beasts of yore? The unintended consequences of fully professionalised policians is that they are hugely ambitious, don't have the breadth and depth of experience of yesterday and feel separate from the ordinary public. The Greens and Reform are rediscovering the amateur tradition. Tim also discusses the battle between those who believe in the Laffer Curve and a smaller state and those who cleave to Wagner's Law, explaining why the state keeps growing.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Finlay Mathers of Edison Group explains why MP Evans and AEP fell so heavily this week. Both produce crude palm oil, which estimates say are in roughly ⅓ of the things on supermarket shelves, even shampoo. The Indonesian President is to centralise product exports through a state-run company which investors fear will produce bottlenecks and distort prices. Both companies, however, say they sell to local refineries and do not export directly. After Easyjet reported, Neil Shah says investors might consider thinking about how the company will be perceived after the Iran crisis. Their planes alone are worth about £8 a share and, in normal times, they trade cheaply with an attractive yield. If you believe the status quo will return, they could be interesting from a valuation perspective.
Guests: Finlay Mathers,Neil Shah
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Original Broadcast: Gadgets and Gizmos
Steve Caplin discusses the limited-edition Piguet swatch which has caused near riots in several countries. Hauwei are to make smart headlights that can project movies & games, and other things not quite so useful. Guide dogs will be able to control your house with the Dogosophy Button. Colossal Biosciences have hatched chickens from 3D-printed eggs, on their way to bringing back the Moa bird. AI agents are becoming Marxists. If you're nostalgic for classic arcade games, you can get one for your home. New Spitfires could be built at a quarter of the cost, using a wartime alternative to aluminium. Robot wolves are seeing off lethal bear attacks in Japan. And biological ageing can be slowed by artistic endeavours as effectively as by exercising.
Guests: Steve Caplin
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Original Broadcast: The Business Of Film
James Cameron-Wilson finds #3 The Sheep Detectives a bit of a curate's egg. An anthropomorphic fantasy, families will take the astonishingly animated sheep to their hearts in a plot worth of Agatha Christie but the acting is annoyingly hammy. Billie Eilish: Hit Me Hard & Soft is a concert film directed by James Cameron. Often hard to hear the lyrics, it is perhaps one for her fans. Out on Blu-Ray is Lynne Ramsay's Die My Love. Robert Pattinson is sidelined by Jennifer Lawrence's impressive performance as a depressive mother becoming increasingly irrational. An important film which juggles realism with the nightmarish, it is almost a character-based horror film.
Guests: James Cameron-Wilson
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell says that the UK 10-year gilt, yielding over 5%, is the highest since 2008. Although that was normal in the Blair years, things are different after 15 years of financial repression with inflation consistently above target and debt levels everywhere far higher. If Starmer and Reeves are replaced, we'd have the 7th PM and 9th Chancellor in 10 years. In the G20 only emerging markets have to pay more to borrow than the UK, while our interest bill is more than we spend on defence. Investors can get a theoretically risk-free and tax-free 5% nominal yield with gilts. It's a potential alternative to equities but inflation is the enemy: while the UK market yields 3.6%, with buybacks, bids and so on factored in, it's more like 6.3%.
Guests: Russ Mould
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