Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that Donald Trump wants to push through a fundamental rebalancing of the US economy, shifting wealth from the public to private sector. He is willing to go through a period of chaos to do so, using tariffs as a blunt foreign policy tool to bully and cajole. In the UK, we may be at, or over, the peak of the Laffer Curve where taxes cause a change in behaviour. 15-30% of cigarette purchases could now be illicit. Will the government reduce duty to increase revenue? And with Labour stealing some centre-right policies, will the strife in those parties intensify and how can they respond?
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian says that since Trump's return to the White House, we are living in a very different world. The presidency is more sure-footed than Trump's haphazard first term. The staged falling out with Zelensky is a confirmation of the US pivot away from the world stage to a sharper, more protectionist era. It helped Keir Starmer have his best week as PM since he took office and Europe's talk of rearmament is history in the making. It is hard to see Trump's imposition of tariffs – effectively a tax on his own people – doing anything other than slowing the global economy and causing a spike in inflation. It will certainly impact the UK government's ability to choose its spending priorities.
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
As Keir Starmer is about to visit Washington, Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University thinks Trump's grand plan with regard to Europe and Ukraine is to prevent Russia becoming China's extraction site and tempt Russia out of China's orbit. With UK local elections looming, he thinks Labour are panicking, particularly in Wales. After over a century of Labour rule he feels that, as with the Conservatives in Scotland, Labour could now be so unpopular that Reform and Farage could end up dominating Welsh politics. And he discusses an article by Lord Roberts attempting to correct historical ignorance about the Nazis.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses President Trump's recent statements on Ukraine, accusing it of having started the war, blocking elections and President Zelensky of being a dictator. How viable is Keir Starmer's statement that the UK will stand by Ukraine? After 78 years, relying on NATO for joint defence is no longer a certainty and puts presure on the UK's spending priorities. He also discusses the lack of awareness shown by Labour MPs over their offensive WhatsApp messages. Taken with other things, like gifts and fibs on CVs, it is death by a thousand cuts though Labour's big majority means that most MPs – bar Reeves – are expendable. However, the local elections could weaken Starmer's authority.
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that people are misreading Donald Trump. Discussing Greenland, Gaza, the Panama Canal, North Korea, NATO and more, he says that there is coherency there. Trump enjoys chaos and is actually thinking several chess moves ahead. He is forever and a day a New York real estate developer – loud, proud, bold and radical. Tim feels that with Reform consistently ahead in the polls and poised to have the largest UK party membership, this is the most important development in British politics in 40 years. The Conservative Party may haemorrhage money, talent and members and could even find themselves the fourth party behind the LibDems at the next election.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
While "Never Here" Keir Starmer thinks the UK can reset its position with the EU, political commentator Mike Indian believes the government is viewing the stagnating EU with rose-tinted spectacles and that this will not be a panacea for our financial troubles. Despite talking about it a great deal, the government has done little so far to promote growth and Reeves' recent speech highlighting a third runway at Heathrow will do little to change that. We need a better-connected country and should be encouraging local mutuals. Mike finds Trump's ideas for Gaza irresponsible and risks plunging the region back into conflict.
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that there was much in Rachel Reeves's recent speech, including her desire to see expansion at Heathrow, that was sensible and should have been done years ago by the Tories. But there was no realisation that her Budget had been disastrous, particularly on taxation. The Conservatives, though, are going about opposition in totally the wrong way and should recognise that there is a higher calling. With Trump's issuing of so many Executive Orders – so many his opponents will have trouble pushing back on all of them – he feels that America has almost discovered a monarchical system of government. But although some Europeans may be envious of the can-do spirit, he worries whether the polarisation of American politics may portend darker days ahead.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian says that Trump's return to the White House represents a pivot back to US isolationism which leaves a void to be filled and means a less secure world. Despite outward appearances, he feels that Trump's Presidency should not be seen as normal. The UK Government's removal of legal challenges to UK infrastructure projects is, he says, a welcome development. While the Chancellor is under pressure from increasingly nervous money markets, Mike feels it is too early to write Rachel Reeves off yet, pointing out that her fortunes are very much bound up with Sir Keir Starmer.
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University wonders, now the wheels are coming off the Government's bus, if Labour is pivoting to the right, with rumoured welfare cuts, implementing the university free speech law and scrapping the banning of gas boilers by 2035. If so, how will the Conservatives react? He strongly recommends Peter Turchin's book, "End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites an Indicators of Revolution" and what it means for our times. And he discusses the probable change in government in Canada in the autumn and whether a new Conservative government will reconsider the role of the state.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses the Chancellor's options in face of the rise in UK borrowing costs and fall in sterling. Will Keir Starmer retain confidence in her? His own future will be determined by her fate. He also addreses the grooming inquiry call and vote, worrying it all feels like too little too late. We owe it to the victims to see that the Jay Report's findings are implemented and that failings in the system need to be addressed. He also discusses Elon Musk's intervention and his relationship with Reform.
Guests: Mike Indian
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