Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell says that in the past five years, banks have been the second best UK performers after Aerospace & Defence. The five in the FTSE are forecast to generate almost a quarter of its profits for 2026 and pay out a fifth of its dividends. This year, though, the banks are in the middle of the pack and down for the year. They certainly earned their run, making record profits when, half a decade ago, you could barely give them away. But the valuations now aren't as compelling as they were, buybacks are being withdrawn, US and European banks have been weak and there are worries about exposure to private equity. As a result, markets are not taking any chances and investors must balance valuation and returns against potential risks.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian says that in the light of the Iran war, the interests of Western nations are diverging sharply, with increasingly erratic American foreign policy – "muscular isolationism" – straining UK-US relations. The US President doesn't seem to see a need to keep allies onside and looks increasingly out of touch. The huge increase in the price of oil and gas is having an effect worldwide, but particularly in the UK, where we rely on natural gas for heating but have little storage and rely on imports, posing problems for Ed Miliband. However, if Starmer's government could show strong leadership in an economic emergency, it could be the making of him. A sharp rise in inflation, though, could put the government under incredible pressure, as could more Mandelson files and low pay growth. Mike feels Angela Rayner will return to the Cabinet after the May elections but what role could she be offered and what would she be willing to accept?
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: Gadgets and Gizmos
Steve Caplin tells Simon Rose that AI agents can now rent human beings to carry out tasks they can't manage themselves. Brain cells in a petri dish have been taught to play the 90s shooter game Doom. BYD's Dena Z9GT can charge from 10% to 70% in just 5 minutes; unfortunately the UK doesn't have any of the required chargers. Tesco is experimenting with replacing bar codes with QR codes; Steve isn't convinced it will work. Pager sales have leapt in Russia after the internet was turned off. There's a collapsible cool box, a laundry chair with arms and a computer mouse that splits into half to become a game controller for your phone. And scientists in Edinburgh have genetically engineered bacteria to break down plastic bottles into a medicine for Parkinson's Disease.
Guests: Steve Caplin
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Original Broadcast: The Business Of Film
James Cameron-Wilson laments box office down 32%. #2 Reminders of Him, a Colleen Hoover adaptation, is complete trash and yet, predictable though it is, it has relatable characters and is hard to dislike. #3 How to Make a Killing is an adaptation of the famous Ealing comedy, Kind Hearts and Coronets. Sadly, this lacks the wit or appeal of the original and is to be avoided at all cost. As ever, James was excited by the Oscars, with most of his predictions coming good. It was, he says, the most predictable ceremony for a long time. Although One Battle After Another won Best Picture, it was really the year of the horror film, which has perhaps become respectable again. One of the highlights was the great speech given by Jessie Buckley.
Guests: James Cameron-Wilson
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Liam O'Byrne of Edison looks at Greggs, the leading on-the-go food retailer, which has a £1.75bn market cap. Their full-year results showed operating profits dimming a little although like-for-like sales and market share were up, despite a gently-declining market. The company expands in such an efficient way that it is reasonable to be optimistic about the company's future. Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust, managed by Baillie Gifford, specialises in businesses that have significant disruptive potential at the frontier of technological innovation. Space X accounts for 16.6% of assets. Facing prolonged activist pressure, they've announced a tender offer which Liam explains. It is an example, though, of a broader issue facing investment trusts sitting at a discount. But it does at least encourage boards to be more responsive to the interests of shareholders.
Guests: Liam O'Byrne
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Original Broadcast: Gadgets and Gizmos
Steve Caplin celebrates 50 years of Apple, a company which he claims has changed our lives in many ways. A man in Gibraltar has had his prostate removed by a surgeon in London using remote control. Some of the AI bots on Moltbook – thinking of founding a religion – are not happy it has been bought by Mega. The Society of Authors wants books to say if they have been written by humans or AI. There's a new mop that could be handy for murderers. Steve salivates over a solar-powered EV which probably wouldn't do too well in the British climate. He feels scientists who are trying to find a way to keep batteries cool might not have thought through their latest idea which brings water and electronics together. And scientists in Texas may have found a way to grow chickpeas – and thus make hummus – on the moon.
Guests: Steve Caplin
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that English common law is the absolute jewel of the UK and that the undermining of trial by jury is utterly shocking; doubly so that it is being done by Labour, which has usually been at the vanguard of civil liberties. The UK public sector is withering and being hollowed out from the inside. He discusses whether the equality of women in society was not only a political story but also an economic one, concluding that – as with other stories of liberation – it is a bit of both. Reform is now Britain's best-funded political party, which is of particular significance in the run-up to the local elections. Tim notes that Reform is now stealing Tory policies such as setting up a sovereign wealth fund. Better late than never. If it encourages other parties to commit to this, then all to the good.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Business Of Film
James Cameron-Wilson is delighted by #1 Hoppers from Pixar. A sci-fi film with a theme of connectivity to the natural world, it's vastly entertaining and imaginative, with plenty of comic business, even if it becomes a bit complicated at times. #4 is The Bride!, written and directed by Maggie Gyllenhaal. It's the nearest any Frankenstein adaptation has come to being a romcom. Starring Christian Bale and Jessie Buckley, who gives a no-holds-barred erotic turn, it's an homage to the movies which gets better and better as you think about it afterwards. Streaming on BBC iPlayer is another Oscar-nominated documentary, Mr. Nobody Against Putin. James found this story of a schoolteacher in the Urals objecting to the militarisation of schools after the invasion of Ukraine highly impressive.
Guests: James Cameron-Wilson
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould says that investors can't ignore what is happening in the Gulf, which has seen a jump in volatility and sharp declines in some of the investments that been doing best but which had little downside protection. Despite this, the broader US market is roughly where it was a week before. Oil is up by a fifth, but that is still much less than during other Middle Eastern crises. For investors, though, the important thing is not to panic. If you had good reasons for your investments before, then be patient, seek diversification and value and avoid leveraged situations. Energy stocks like BP and Shell account for 10% of the FTSE by market cap and the market is saying the oil price is about right. Oil service companies could be worth a thought if the conflict lasts longer than expected but the only one the UK has left now is Hunting.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian says that Kier Starmer's decision to stay out of the strikes on Iran is wise. There is no sense of an end-game plan. All this is a long way from Trump's first-term rhetoric of "no foreign wars". It is hard to see this as anything but naked aggression. We, however, have built our post-war security under the US nuclear umbrella and our failure to protect our bases merely highlights the cutbacks in our armed forces in the last 15 years or so. If we are smart, perhaps we will use the conflict as a spur to increase our defence budget. Has Starmer's refusal to help harmed the "Special Relationship"? That hasn't really existed since Bush and Blair. Iran will run out of ammunition before the Americans but what happens then? The muted reaction to the Spring Statement shows how quiet things have become on the Rachel Reeves' front. The forecasts for growth have been downgraded but the Chancellor is still on track to meet her tax and spending rules. A surge in inflation as a result of "events" could yet pose her problems.
Guests: Mike Indian
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