Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University believes China's big problem is not Trump but its domestic economic woes. The extraordinary property bubble has left more vacant homes than the massive population. With high youth unemployment, China is potentially in a downward spiral, fuelled by widespread pessimism. Tony Blair has exposed the schism in Labour over the dash to Net Zero and with Trump's push for energy supremacy and oil prices falling, we may soon get the called-for "reset of the debate". While it's unclear if Trump's first 100 days will be judged a success, he has nonetheless pushed through some amazing reforms and changed global discourse in a way not seen since the days of Thatcher & Reagan.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian wonders what lasting settlement there can be in Ukraine given the capriciousness of the Trump administration. We are seeing a redrawing of global alliances, with the US returning to its former isolationist policy. In the wake of the Supreme Court gender ruling, he considers the divisiveness and politicisation of the topic and how nuance is being lost. We should be more considerate to those who feel they have been born in the wrong body. Whatever your view on the edicts of the Papacy, the Pope is still a political figure with a difference and an integral moral force in an increasingly turbulent world. The new Pope wiill have a difficult task ahead of him.
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University discusses the nature of political economy in statecraft in the light of the government taking over British Steel. Why are so many of Britain's important companies plundered? Tim discusses Donald Trump's divisiveness. Despite disliking the man, has to admit he has been proven right on some things. But are his heavy-handed tactics brewing a very fundamental currency crisis? And, given the rapid advances in technology which mean we are at another "Dreadnought moment", how can military and political leaders make sensible spending choices?
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that people should not look at Trump's tariffs in isolation. They are only part of his strategy. The press ignored his remarks on the US needing legal immigration, supply-side reforms and a new tax regime to unleash the country's potential. There are risks but, if he succeeds, we could be in a different world. While the UK government considers tinkering with ISAs, Tim says that savings are underestimated and that you can't have capitalism without capital and we need more financial education. He also cheers the fact that the UK will have its first rocket launch this year, enabling us to participate in the vast and growing satellite market.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that if the markets turn against the government then it is real trouble. If Reeves increases taxes in the Autumn, as many expect, then we will be in a doom loop. He admires an idea from Dr. Madsen Pirie of the Adam Smith Institute for using a blockchain approach to speed up the lamentable speed of the UK housing market. Why can the Americans move so easily? And he discusses the record fine imposed on the University of Sussex over the case involving Professor Kathleen Stock, a big victory for defenders of free speech.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses the fact that a fifth of UK adults are still not looking for work, what used to be called NEETS. The Government has to focus on getting as many people as it can into work sustainably, laying the groundwork for what it will be judged for at the next election. Mike believes that its communication strategy has improved massively. Starmer has come into his own on the international stage, arguably moving into the space at the top of Europe while the US is playing silly buggers with foreign policy. While it will take time to ramp up Europe's defence capability, governments have to think the unthinkable.
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that Donald Trump wants to push through a fundamental rebalancing of the US economy, shifting wealth from the public to private sector. He is willing to go through a period of chaos to do so, using tariffs as a blunt foreign policy tool to bully and cajole. In the UK, we may be at, or over, the peak of the Laffer Curve where taxes cause a change in behaviour. 15-30% of cigarette purchases could now be illicit. Will the government reduce duty to increase revenue? And with Labour stealing some centre-right policies, will the strife in those parties intensify and how can they respond?
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian says that since Trump's return to the White House, we are living in a very different world. The presidency is more sure-footed than Trump's haphazard first term. The staged falling out with Zelensky is a confirmation of the US pivot away from the world stage to a sharper, more protectionist era. It helped Keir Starmer have his best week as PM since he took office and Europe's talk of rearmament is history in the making. It is hard to see Trump's imposition of tariffs – effectively a tax on his own people – doing anything other than slowing the global economy and causing a spike in inflation. It will certainly impact the UK government's ability to choose its spending priorities.
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
As Keir Starmer is about to visit Washington, Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University thinks Trump's grand plan with regard to Europe and Ukraine is to prevent Russia becoming China's extraction site and tempt Russia out of China's orbit. With UK local elections looming, he thinks Labour are panicking, particularly in Wales. After over a century of Labour rule he feels that, as with the Conservatives in Scotland, Labour could now be so unpopular that Reform and Farage could end up dominating Welsh politics. And he discusses an article by Lord Roberts attempting to correct historical ignorance about the Nazis.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses President Trump's recent statements on Ukraine, accusing it of having started the war, blocking elections and President Zelensky of being a dictator. How viable is Keir Starmer's statement that the UK will stand by Ukraine? After 78 years, relying on NATO for joint defence is no longer a certainty and puts presure on the UK's spending priorities. He also discusses the lack of awareness shown by Labour MPs over their offensive WhatsApp messages. Taken with other things, like gifts and fibs on CVs, it is death by a thousand cuts though Labour's big majority means that most MPs – bar Reeves – are expendable. However, the local elections could weaken Starmer's authority.
Guests: Mike Indian
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