Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell marks the first anniversary of Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs. The overall impact hasn't been as great as feared at the time, with tariffs settling around 10-13%. Since then, the dollar has gone down, US equities have underperformed and US bond yields have generally gone up. The concept of the US being the only game in town has been reassessed, while supply chain management and national security in all its ramifications have come to the fore. In all this, the UK isn't the worst place to be invested in, thanks to the heavy emphasis on oils, mining and staples, which do well in times of uncertainy. The UK isn't immune if there's a worldwide recession but it does offer some balance and ballast.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses Trump's threat to leave NATO, saying that the closer the mid-term elections are, the more desperate Trump becomes. It is hard to see what has been achieved by the US action against Iran, other than entrenching the regime's hardliners and closing a vital trade route. Trump's threat is a frightening prospect, as NATO is the bedrock of European security. With the UK local elections just a few weeks away, Keir Starmer has opted to focus on the cost of living. One of his aims is to seek closer economic ties with the EU. Mike hopes that he will take the chance to talk up collective security for which – in the fact of Trump's threats – Europe needs a long-term strategy.
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: Gadgets and Gizmos
Steve Caplin is surprised to find that Amazon can amend or even delete Kindle books you supposedly own. He is less surprised at how ChapGPT assesses good literature. He is very impressed with a drone that captures everything in 8K without you having to pay much attention to what's in view. There's a gizmo that turns an ordinary watch into a slightly smarter watch. The new iPhone OS can zoom in on audio as well as video. Yamaha have a 3-wheel motor scooter, but Sony have given up on their much-heralded e-car. There's a crowd-funded digital camera designed to look like the old disposable Kodaks, a folding kayak and a spork with lots of attachments. And, in Shenzen, they now have a games arcade where you can control everything with your mind.
Guests: Steve Caplin
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Original Broadcast: The Business Of Film
James Cameron-Wilson found #2, the Enid Blyton fantasy The Magic Faraway Tree, to be a charmless, farcical misfire. With Claire Foy and Andrew Garfield, it is full of shouty overacting, with music numbers crammed in and is a wasted opportunity. #7 They Will Kill You is a grotesque horror film about a New York highrise which is a temple to Satan. It's another with a surprising 15 certificate. Amazon documentary Man on the Run is about Paul McCartney, covering the breakup of The Beatles to the murder of John Lennon. On Amazon, it starts promisingly but, while there's plenty of home video, there's little that's new. After a dispiriting week, James watched the harrowing but brilliant The Killing Fields to cheer himself up. It's on C4 and Plex.
Guests: James Cameron-Wilson
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Chloe Wong of Edison Group discusses P Z Cussons, best known in the UK for brands like Imperial Leather and Carex. But this 140-year-old firm has a large international portfolo of consumer goods. Recently it has been concentrating its activities and geographical areas while reducing the number of brands. It has also increased its emphasis on marketing. With a 5% yield, it's a dependable stock in troubled times. Shepherd Neame is another heritage brand, having been brewing since 1698. As well as beers like Spitfire and Bishop's Finger, it is a hotel and pub company with a tenanted estate. Again it's the sort of company investors like when things are turbulent. Although cost and wage inflation is affecting the sector, this is manageable. 85% of its estate is freehold and the NAV is £182m against a market cap of £82m. With a yield over 5% it is looking attractively priced. More information on both companies is available on the Edison website.
Guests: Chloe Wong Yun Shing
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Original Broadcast: Gadgets and Gizmos
Steve Caplin discusses some of the features of Apple's updated operating sstem, including having the ability to talk to chatbots while driving although, worryingly, there will also be a curated "sleep" playlist. He craves a gorgeous red electric submarine. There's a cargo ebike with some interesting features. Be careful about telling the Gemini chatbot that it's wrong; apparently this causes it "emotional distress". A YouTuber has powered an electric car with thrown-away vape batteries. There's a crowd-funded robotic wasp which, suspects Steve, may not be all it is claimed. He finds himself able to resist a beer-filled transparent jacket, despite the two methods of extracting beer from it. And he discusses the world's first quantum battery.
Guests: Steve Caplin
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Original Broadcast: The Business Of Film
James Cameron-Wilson reports box office up 102% with #1 the Ryan Gosling sci-fi film Project Hail Mary. From the writers of The Martian, he plays a science teacher who wakes up from a coma in space. Like The Martian largely a one-person film, it is great fun early on but becomes self-indulgent, barmy and sentimental, with the trailer giving away a very late plot point. James was even less keen on the horror film Ready or Not 2: Here I Come. It is ludicrous drivel which is neither scary nor funny and is dreadfully edited. He was amazed at its 15 certificate. On Netflix is the feature film Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man starring Cillian Murphy, as in the TV series. It's part ghost story, part war movie and part gangster epic. It looks terrific but it has too many flashbacks and set pieces and they can't disguise that there is very little story or narrative drive. James was actually glad when it ended.
Guests: James Cameron-Wilson
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans says that to understand Donald Trump, you need to know that, in the late 80s and early 90s, he was a close friend of Richard Nixon, who told him that he used the persona of an irrational madman to unsettle others. Indeed, Nixon and his wife urged Trump to enter politics. In terms of policy, Trump is also a devotee of Reagan and William McKinley, an advocate of tariffs in America's interests. The Archbishop of Canterbury is one of the most important constitutional positions in Britain. In an increasingly secular age, the new Archbishop will have a challenging task ahead, but Tim feels that she is the right person for the job. The issue of Net Zero has come to the fore in the midst of an energy crisis like the 1970s. Tim ponders the politics of it, wondering if it could become as divisive as Brexit.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell says that in the past five years, banks have been the second best UK performers after Aerospace & Defence. The five in the FTSE are forecast to generate almost a quarter of its profits for 2026 and pay out a fifth of its dividends. This year, though, the banks are in the middle of the pack and down for the year. They certainly earned their run, making record profits when, half a decade ago, you could barely give them away. But the valuations now aren't as compelling as they were, buybacks are being withdrawn, US and European banks have been weak and there are worries about exposure to private equity. As a result, markets are not taking any chances and investors must balance valuation and returns against potential risks.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian says that in the light of the Iran war, the interests of Western nations are diverging sharply, with increasingly erratic American foreign policy – "muscular isolationism" – straining UK-US relations. The US President doesn't seem to see a need to keep allies onside and looks increasingly out of touch. The huge increase in the price of oil and gas is having an effect worldwide, but particularly in the UK, where we rely on natural gas for heating but have little storage and rely on imports, posing problems for Ed Miliband. However, if Starmer's government could show strong leadership in an economic emergency, it could be the making of him. A sharp rise in inflation, though, could put the government under incredible pressure, as could more Mandelson files and low pay growth. Mike feels Angela Rayner will return to the Cabinet after the May elections but what role could she be offered and what would she be willing to accept?
Guests: Mike Indian
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