Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Tim Price of Price Value Partners offers a guide to investing in uncertain times and why it is important not to judge your performance against others but in absolute terms. He explains why his fund avoids bonds but instead invests in: trend-following funds (all TFF funds made money in the dreadful markets of 2008); profitable, debt-free value stocks following the strategies of Benjamin Graham; and tangible, real, non-financial assets. He discusses the under-reporting of inflation and the problems caused by the US national debt of $35 trillion, increasing by $1 trillion every 100 days, pointing out that the UK situation is comparable. Tim's weekly commentary is available at https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/
Guests: Tim Price
Published:
Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that Keir Starmer feels more like a Prime Minister than Rishi Sunak. The big themes emerging from the new government are wealth creation and growth, reducing debt and building homes. Labour's competence could pose problems for the Conservatives. Tim runs through the candidates for the Leadership, with Badenoch and Jenrick the frontrunners. But the new leader may need to purge its left wing, as Labour has, if it is to see off Reform. Reform, for its part, has huge opportunities and challenges and must modernise and professionalise if it is to become a proper, grown-up party.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
Published:
Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian is surprised that so little attention has been paid to one of the more radical things in the King's Speech, the boosting of employment rights. He discusses the rebellion of 7 Labour MPs over the child benefit cap. While insignificant now with such a large majority, he feels that things could get trickier with such a broadly-based range of MPs from the second year onwards. He explains how much the American electoral landscape has changed with the exit of Joe Biden from the Presidential race. Harris, he feels, could be a serious contender against Donald Trump but that her choice of Vice President will be key.
Guests: Mike Indian
Published:
Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University found the King's Speech fascinating. He feels that if Labour can deliver 1.5m homes, reform the NHS and grow the UK economy, then it will cement its healthy electoral position. He wonders if the Conservatives can find the unity and clarity of strategy to survive, feeling that the party does not understand the hatred many of its former voters have for them. If Reform can capitalise on this, the Conservative Party may be in a much more precarious position than they realise.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
Published:
Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian analyses the General Election result, astonishing for its massive majority on a tiny vote share and the way it exposed the oddities of the UK election system, particularly with Reform getting more votes than the Libdems but just a fraction of their seats. With Sir Kier Starmer probably only having a brief honeymoon period, Mike hopes they will underpromise and overdeliver. With Starmer at the NATO summit, will Labour deliver the promised defence increase in this dangerous period? He explains why Joe Biden should step aside and looks at the future for the Tories, currently facing electoral irrelevance.
Guests: Mike Indian
Published:
Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
With the Labour Party taking the reins of power after a absence of 14 years, it's important to understand their journey. Here's a replay of Simon Rose joined by political commentator and author of The Groucho Tendency blog, Mike Indian, discussing how UK politics has got to the modern era. In this replay of an episode first broadcast in October 2019 when Jeremy Corbyn was its leader and just over two months before the December 2019 election, Simon and Mike discuss the history of the Labour Party.
Guests: Mike Indian
Published:
Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian assesses the state of the nation a week ahead of the General Election, finding the political betting scandal just the latest nail in the coffin of a disastrous Conservative campaign. Although the Prime Minister acquitted himself well in the debate with Keir Starmer, with most postal votes already sent in, it is far too late to stop the Labour juggernaut. Which, though, will be the main opposition party? Could the Libdems return more MPs than the Conservatives. And will Labour end up with a "sandcastle majority"? Mike discusses what he expects to happen on 5th July and in the subsequent days, believing the real test for Labour will come during next winter when the reality of Britain's position could hit home.
Guests: Mike Indian
Published:
Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University focuses on the "political atmospherics" or the "vibes" of the main parties. He considers this to be the only General Election in his lifetime that is more like a by-election, where most people are voting negatively. The Tories have essentially become the "untrusted socialists", as irrelevant as old Labour in the 70s and 80s. Labour is shapeshifting in a Tory Party way and could become the natural party of government. The LibDems are the closest to moderate old Labour while Reform UK are now the Thatcherites. As for the electorate: they are smart and don't change much.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
Published:
Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses the Conservatives' dismal election campaign, feeling it indicative of a tired, worn-out government. He wonders where Labour's inspiring moment is, feeling the Tories are losing rather than Labour winning. He senses that Labour is planning attacks on CGT and wealth. Despite Nigel Farage attempting – for the 8th time – to become an MP, Mike thinks turnout could be down. He'll be fascinated to see if Reform get more votes than the stunt-obsessed LibDems. Looking at what has happened with European elections, he believes that Starmer must deliver, or politics could become more extreme and populist in the UK too.
Guests: Mike Indian
Published:
Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University explains that the Conservative Party is no longer trusted, that it is out of touch with its base and so is relying on negative campaigning. Without a positive vision, they stand no chance of stopping a landslide. While Labour is more moderate and united, it may come under pressure once it is in power. Can it rise to the many domestic and global challenges it will face, particularly with such an appalling handover? if so, it might become the natural party of government. It will be fascinating to see if Reform overtake the Tories in the polls, in which case the Conservative argument against voting for Reform vanishes.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
Published:
