Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian summarises the UK's local election results which were a good night for Reform and the Greens but a rout for Labour, particularly in England and Wales. They don't tell us a lot, though, about where UK politics is going, except that voters are moving in different directions. It has caused panic in Labour ranks, with a steady drip of those calling for Starmer to give a timetable for his resignation. He is bloody-minded and may survive for longer, reshuffling his cabinet. Where, though, are the intellectuals and big thinkers of earlier years? Mike hopes that Ed Miliband moves to the Treasury, where his talents could make a big difference. Ultimately, popularity is less important than ideas; people want their lives to be materially better and easier and that is more important than who is in Number Ten.
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University is alarmed by the fact that 16% of Britain's 16-24 year olds are unemployed. This is worse than Spain and Greece, who used to be the outliers. Cost pressures, AI, bad health and a skills mismatch are all creating a perfect storm which will have a long-term detrimental effect for many. Tony Blair's thinktank is urging Labour to scrap the "unaffordable" state pension Triple Lock. This is among the most radical policy thinking for almost 100 years. Effectively Blair is saying that the welfare state is heading towards bankruptcy. And while we are most affected by local government, rather than national, there are few bodies focussing on it. Yet council overreach on fines, roads, bins, bollards and the like are creating a collapse in trust between people and those who have most effect on their lives.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian analyses the recent political kerfuffle involving Olly Robbins, Morgan McSweeney & Keir Starmer. It has exposed qualities lacking in the PM, particularly his lack of curiosity, his failure to grasp the nettle and to give direction. But he appears to have 9 lives, particularly given the fact that there is no obvious successor. It may be that the economic response to events matters more than who is in Number Ten. Given the ropy relationship between the US government and Starmer, the King's visit to the United States and his address to the US Congress has shown the value of the Royal Family when it comes to soft diplomatic power. It was a considerable PR victory, reminding the Americans why we are an important diplomatic ally. But the UK needs a fundamental re-evaluation of our geo-political alliances and should work to be more independent.
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University thinks that a huge political realignment is happening in the West. There's a new type of discourse which is less about economics, as it largely was for almost a century, and more about identitarian politics, about the shifting sands of statecraft and the nature of the nation state and borders. It's a big, historic inflexion point which Tim believes will be the biggest geopolitical upheaval since the last 1940s. The boom in higher education in the UK turned into a bubble and bubbles are prone to burst. The sector is in crisis, with culling of courses and institutions while student loans are now a hot political football. Clearly it is a bad idea for national targets to be set for higher education, but Tim wonders why there is no competition for student loans. Why can't institutions compete with the government and develop their own products?
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses Trump's threat to leave NATO, saying that the closer the mid-term elections are, the more desperate Trump becomes. It is hard to see what has been achieved by the US action against Iran, other than entrenching the regime's hardliners and closing a vital trade route. Trump's threat is a frightening prospect, as NATO is the bedrock of European security. With the UK local elections just a few weeks away, Keir Starmer has opted to focus on the cost of living. One of his aims is to seek closer economic ties with the EU. Mike hopes that he will take the chance to talk up collective security for which – in the fact of Trump's threats – Europe needs a long-term strategy.
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans says that to understand Donald Trump, you need to know that, in the late 80s and early 90s, he was a close friend of Richard Nixon, who told him that he used the persona of an irrational madman to unsettle others. Indeed, Nixon and his wife urged Trump to enter politics. In terms of policy, Trump is also a devotee of Reagan and William McKinley, an advocate of tariffs in America's interests. The Archbishop of Canterbury is one of the most important constitutional positions in Britain. In an increasingly secular age, the new Archbishop will have a challenging task ahead, but Tim feels that she is the right person for the job. The issue of Net Zero has come to the fore in the midst of an energy crisis like the 1970s. Tim ponders the politics of it, wondering if it could become as divisive as Brexit.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian says that in the light of the Iran war, the interests of Western nations are diverging sharply, with increasingly erratic American foreign policy – "muscular isolationism" – straining UK-US relations. The US President doesn't seem to see a need to keep allies onside and looks increasingly out of touch. The huge increase in the price of oil and gas is having an effect worldwide, but particularly in the UK, where we rely on natural gas for heating but have little storage and rely on imports, posing problems for Ed Miliband. However, if Starmer's government could show strong leadership in an economic emergency, it could be the making of him. A sharp rise in inflation, though, could put the government under incredible pressure, as could more Mandelson files and low pay growth. Mike feels Angela Rayner will return to the Cabinet after the May elections but what role could she be offered and what would she be willing to accept?
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that English common law is the absolute jewel of the UK and that the undermining of trial by jury is utterly shocking; doubly so that it is being done by Labour, which has usually been at the vanguard of civil liberties. The UK public sector is withering and being hollowed out from the inside. He discusses whether the equality of women in society was not only a political story but also an economic one, concluding that – as with other stories of liberation – it is a bit of both. Reform is now Britain's best-funded political party, which is of particular significance in the run-up to the local elections. Tim notes that Reform is now stealing Tory policies such as setting up a sovereign wealth fund. Better late than never. If it encourages other parties to commit to this, then all to the good.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian says that Kier Starmer's decision to stay out of the strikes on Iran is wise. There is no sense of an end-game plan. All this is a long way from Trump's first-term rhetoric of "no foreign wars". It is hard to see this as anything but naked aggression. We, however, have built our post-war security under the US nuclear umbrella and our failure to protect our bases merely highlights the cutbacks in our armed forces in the last 15 years or so. If we are smart, perhaps we will use the conflict as a spur to increase our defence budget. Has Starmer's refusal to help harmed the "Special Relationship"? That hasn't really existed since Bush and Blair. Iran will run out of ammunition before the Americans but what happens then? The muted reaction to the Spring Statement shows how quiet things have become on the Rachel Reeves' front. The forecasts for growth have been downgraded but the Chancellor is still on track to meet her tax and spending rules. A surge in inflation as a result of "events" could yet pose her problems.
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
James Cameron-Wilson reports that box office is down 32%, though Wuthering Heights is still #1. #6 is the unnerving but funny horror Cold Storage. Witty, in the mould of Tremors, this gruesome tale of a deadly fungus has all the makings of a cult classic, managing the tricky balance between gross-out horror and laugh-out-loud comedy. At #10 is Good Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die, a sci-fi twist on Groundhog Day with Sam Rockwell a traveller from the future trying to prevent the AI apocalypse. A satirical shaggy dog epic in the manner of Terry Gilliam, it is very funny and chilling at the same time. James admired the Netflix documentary The Perfect Neighbour. Largely taken from police bodycam footage, it is about a neighbourhood tragedy in Florida. Although it is widely tipped for an Oscar, he is not sure of its merits as a watchable movie.
Guests: James Cameron-Wilson
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