Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Fixed interest investors, says Russ Mould of A J Bell, are concerned that Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" will add to the US's current $36 trillion debt pile, with debt interest already accounting for a fifth of the US tax take. Things that serve as hedges against inflation, stagflation or policy error, such as gold, are rising again. Is silver – challenging the $33-an-ounce level again – being unduly overlooked? A recent bid could mean many miners are undervalued, particularly given the conductive metal's many uses in the move to net zero and the fact that demand has outstripped supply for the last five years. As the price climbs, so the miners become more profitable and nervous investors may find silver worth considering.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Finlay Mathers and Neil Shah of Edison Capital discuss two tech funds heavily involved in AI. Polar Capital's successful Technology Fund has recently shifted massively into the field, with an 80-90% exposure to AI. Focussing on the middle section of the company life cycle, its managers say that AI is on an exponential curve, much like the development of early skyscrapers. Molten Ventures is a publicly-quoted VC fund concentrating on early stage AI, with exposure to R&D and startups. It has plenty of cash ready for seizing interesting opportunities. Both managers consider AI not to be a trend, but a fundamental shift in technology.
Guests: Finlay Mathers
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell explains that markets are hoping that trade deals might be in the offing to reduce the effect of President Trump's tariffs. It is too early to tell if this is a triumph of hope over expectation or if the UK will be one of the first companies to strike a deal with the US and reduce the effect of tariffs. Russ goes through some of the companies which have explained how they will be affected by American tariffs and which might benefit from the Indian trade deal.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Chloe Won Yung Shin of Edison Group thinks investors should keep an eye out for Metlen. It's a Greek energy and metals company with a €6bn market cap heading for a second listing in London later in the year, where it may join the FTSE100. It's Europe's only aluminium producer and has an increasing interest in producing critical metals. IP Group invests in intellectual property businesses, mainly in the UK. As a result of recent headwinds it is trading at over 70% discount to net asset value. But there are plenty of positives about the business. Both are discussed on Edison's website. https://www.edisongroup.com
Guests: Chloe Won Yung Shin
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould of A J Bell says that when the US President doesn't know what's happening next, how can anybody else, particularly when the reasons given for imposing tariffs are so contradictory? Investing should be about sleeping well at night. If your investments are keeping you awake, perhaps you should make them safer. Think about asset allocation and whether America – and tech stocks – will lead the way in future. Have some spare cash in case you need it and you may be able to take advantage of volatile market dips. As Warren Buffett says, stock markets are there to enable the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
FInlay Mathers of Edison Group discusses Rolls-Royce which, under new management, met all its turnaround targets two years early and confounded investors' attitudes towards its business, comprising civil aviation, aerospace and power systems. The shares are above the industry average but it's a fantastic business whose air business has a "power by the hour" model linking it to the upturn in global air travel, while its defence order book is up by 89%. The future may be bumpy, but the business is very sound.
Guests: Finlay Mathers
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Stockmarkets are so chaotic in the wake of Trump's various announcements that we're delighted to replay a short summary clip called 'Superinvestors' from August 2017. In a partnership with publishers Harriman House, Share Radio produced its first audiobook 'Superinvestors', written by Matthew Partridge and read by some of Share Radio's best known presenters. 'Superinvestors' lays bare the investing secrets of legendary investors - from early 20th-century figures such as Benjamin Graham and John Maynard Keynes, through to more modern names such as Anthony Bolton and Warren Buffett — download it at https://www.harriman-house.com/superinvestors . If wisdom improves with age, this might be useful today ..
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Chloe Won Yung Shin of Edison Group discusses Michelmarch Bricks' recent results. It makes 122m bricks and pavers a year, has a strong balance sheet and should benefit from the UK's structural shortage of housing. On a discount to its peers, it has 7% of the market with further upside potential. Andy Murphy, director of content for Industrials at Edison is intrigued by Smiths News. A regional distributor of newspapers and magazines, it is handling a declining market well, stripping costs back and diversifying by collecting dry waste from those shops it delivers to. It's a cash generative business that has long been ignored and undervalued and yields twice its PE.
Guests: Andy Murphy,Chloe Won Yung Shin
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Russ Mould says that with the OBR lowering its growth and raising its inflation target, stagflation looks even more likely. The concept of "fiscal headroom", he says, is pure rhubarb but the bond market seemed content with what Rachel Reeves had to say, even though the UK's interest bill is higher than the defence budget. However, tariffs are going to complicate things. With the NASDAQ this year's worst market so far and Hong Kong the best, the mood music is changing. Investors must think about whether the environment for the next ten years is going to be different than the previous ten.
Guests: Russ Mould
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Original Broadcast: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
Finlay Mathers and Neil Shah of Edison Group discuss the move by investors out of the US and into the UK and other European markets, as Trump's tariffs produce a downturn for the American economy and equities. The UK market is far cheaper, has less downside, and it doesn't take much money moving from the big seven US megacaps to stimulate change in European markets. Finlay also discusses BAE Systems which is up 25% in the past twelve months. As a beneficiary of increased defence spending and with an order backlog of £78bn, it has strong growth potential, especially in maritime and armoured vehicles.
Guests: Finlay Mathers
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