Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
For the final Bigger Picture with Simon Rose, Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University looks back over the past 12 years of the programme. Into the good category, he places the advances in technology in areas like medicine, the digital world and the AI revolution. This will give a huge uplift to developing countries. As to the bad, that would include the polarisation of political life as the state hollows itself out from the inside, with taxes at an all-time high and services getting ever worse. Tim highlights the number of people under 40 abandoning the NHS, who believe they won't get a state pension for them and who see their future not in Britain but abroad. The ugly is the ever increasing indebtedness of the world's most advanced democracies and the rising authoritarianism which threatens the underpinning of our open society.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
It is hard to say what finished off Keir Starmer as PM, says Mike Indian. It was political death by a thousand cuts. But he seemed to be decent and honourable and tried to do his best. Posterity will probably be kinder to him than many current critics are. It now seems certain that Andy Burnham will become Prime Minister and Mike thinks it right that there won't be a distracting leadership contest. Burnham says he will stick to Reeves's fiscal rules which means he will have to show a lot of creative thinking. He is more charming and wittier than Starmer, but will that be enough? His appointment of Chancellor will be crucial. We don't really know what a Burnham premiership will look like. Mike reflects that in the nine years he and Simon Rose have been discussing The Bigger Picture, the world has become a less certain place, politics is now a lot less kind and public trust in institutions and politicians has declined considerably.
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University is concerned about the illiberal realities of a blanket ban on social media for children. It lets parents off the hook, infringes civil liberties and free speech and could be a slippery slope towards universal ID. Such heavy-handed restrictions have dangerous unintended consequences; just think about Prohibition and the War on Drugs. Tim is worried that it may end up pushing young people into harm's way. He also is puzzled that dramatic changes in Cuba are not being widely reported. US sanctions have forced the authorities to accept that they must move towards a degree of capitalism. But they intend doing it by pivoting towards China, an idea rejected by the US. Whatever happens, reinstating a degree of private property rights is a massive political story.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian finds it worrying how quickly narratives about events such as those in Southampton and Belfast can take on a life of their own, with some comments from politicians at home and overseas being less than helpful. A myth has sprung up about a two-tier justice system, weaponised by figures on the right. It taps into a lack of faith in our institutions. Ultimately, we all have an interest in how our streets are policed. It would appear that the Prime Minister is going to apply tighter controls to social media companies regarding under 16s. With the Makerfield by-election soon upon us, he may not be in office much longer: this could be his attempt at a legacy. But a blanket ban will be very difficult to enforce. While Makerfield may seem an important by-election, changing the leadership of the Labour Party will undermine its legitimacy. Whoever is in charge should concentrate on how the government can make people's lives better.
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University believes that the recent interventions by Alan Milburn and Tony Blair are being ignored within the Labour Party, which is also oblivious to news that as many union members support Reform as they do Labour. It is clear that the new leader, if there is one, will be incapable of learning what needs to be done to win back the public, which would also pose problems for the Tories and Reform. Instead, Labour struggles to know what it is about, much like the Tories. Tim also believes that the UK police force is another failed brand, no longer an arms-length neutral institution but a part of the state and a political football. It is hard to see how the police force can extricate itself and rebuild its reputation.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses the essay from the Ghost of Labour Past, Tony Blair, saying that Labour has lost its way. While he is right about some things, the essay has gone down like a lead balloon with many in the party, with Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting laying into him. Ahead of the Makerfield by-election, Labour is in a holding pattern. Whoever does succeed Keir Starmer will face a challenging landscape, to say the very least. Peter Murrell, who was at the heard of Scotland's governing party for 15 years or so, has admitted to embezzling £400,000. The estranged husband of Nicola Sturgeon, Murrell's case raises questions about her judgement and perhaps explains why she resigned so suddenly. Alan Milburn's "lost generation" report shows that today's young people face a perfect storm. Being detached from the labour market could harm them for the rest of their lives. But the report is not likely to find much sympathy within the Starmer government. Nor is there much in it to give young people hope.
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that Labour, in office for less than two years, is at war with itself, with the party deeply divided into several factions. Labour is entering very choppy waters and may not be able to retain a level of trust with each other to keep the party together. It wouldn't be surprising if the public compared them with the Tories and think "same difference". Where are the big political beasts of yore? The unintended consequences of fully professionalised policians is that they are hugely ambitious, don't have the breadth and depth of experience of yesterday and feel separate from the ordinary public. The Greens and Reform are rediscovering the amateur tradition. Tim also discusses the battle between those who believe in the Laffer Curve and a smaller state and those who cleave to Wagner's Law, explaining why the state keeps growing.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian summarises the UK's local election results which were a good night for Reform and the Greens but a rout for Labour, particularly in England and Wales. They don't tell us a lot, though, about where UK politics is going, except that voters are moving in different directions. It has caused panic in Labour ranks, with a steady drip of those calling for Starmer to give a timetable for his resignation. He is bloody-minded and may survive for longer, reshuffling his cabinet. Where, though, are the intellectuals and big thinkers of earlier years? Mike hopes that Ed Miliband moves to the Treasury, where his talents could make a big difference. Ultimately, popularity is less important than ideas; people want their lives to be materially better and easier and that is more important than who is in Number Ten.
Guests: Mike Indian
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University is alarmed by the fact that 16% of Britain's 16-24 year olds are unemployed. This is worse than Spain and Greece, who used to be the outliers. Cost pressures, AI, bad health and a skills mismatch are all creating a perfect storm which will have a long-term detrimental effect for many. Tony Blair's thinktank is urging Labour to scrap the "unaffordable" state pension Triple Lock. This is among the most radical policy thinking for almost 100 years. Effectively Blair is saying that the welfare state is heading towards bankruptcy. And while we are most affected by local government, rather than national, there are few bodies focussing on it. Yet council overreach on fines, roads, bins, bollards and the like are creating a collapse in trust between people and those who have most effect on their lives.
Guests: Professor Tim Evans
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Original Broadcast: The Bigger Picture
Political commentator Mike Indian analyses the recent political kerfuffle involving Olly Robbins, Morgan McSweeney & Keir Starmer. It has exposed qualities lacking in the PM, particularly his lack of curiosity, his failure to grasp the nettle and to give direction. But he appears to have 9 lives, particularly given the fact that there is no obvious successor. It may be that the economic response to events matters more than who is in Number Ten. Given the ropy relationship between the US government and Starmer, the King's visit to the United States and his address to the US Congress has shown the value of the Royal Family when it comes to soft diplomatic power. It was a considerable PR victory, reminding the Americans why we are an important diplomatic ally. But the UK needs a fundamental re-evaluation of our geo-political alliances and should work to be more independent.
Guests: Mike Indian
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